Think big! Even better, act big!
Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, expressed that sentiment when commenting on how the deal for the prisoner release was executed. Haass, a former diplomat, said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe that sometimes, when things look deadlocked, as they were during these hostage negotiations, it makes sense to go big.
In this case, the tri-lateral talks among the U.S., Russia and Germany expanded when Victor Navalnyperished in a Russian gulag in February. Navalny was to be traded as a means of getting Vladimir Putin’s favored prisoner, Vadim Krasikov, an FSB colonel and hitman, released from German custody.
Rather than give up, negotiators expanded their reach to involve seven countries, including Norway, Poland and Slovenia. The net result was that three U.S. hostages—Paul Whelan, Evan Gershkovich and Alsu Kurmasheva—were released along with other Russian human rights advocates. In return, Russia received Krasikov, along with other Russians, convicted of various crimes and incarcerated outside of Russia. In total, 24 prisoners were exchanged.
Haass’s dictum about going big extends behind diplomacy. Thinking big is a hallmark of many business deals; in fact, that kind of thinking propels the world of mergers and acquisitions. What is different with international prisoner exchanges, however, is that unlike M&A transactions, where sovereignty is subsumed by the stronger partner, in diplomacy, both sides remain whole.
Lessons to be learned.
Best-selling author and negotiator William Ury writes about what the diplomats accomplished in his new book, Possible: How We Survive (and Thrive) in a World of Conflict. “Zoom out and consider that game you are playing… What could you do to change the game from a win-lose battle to a game of constructive conflict and cooperation?”
We can learn from such actions for future negotiations in our own sphere of influence. Greg Williams, The Master Negotiator & Body Language Expert, says, “Actually, it’s good to think big and small. You’re seeking insights that might get the negotiation back on track. A negotiator may uncover the key that unlocks a deadlock by exploring both perspectives.”
Take a step back. When things are deadlocked, people tend to give up. Often, it is better to pause, reflect and consider new possibilities.
Look beyond the immediate issue. Rather than focus on what’s in front of us, think about what’s possible. Diplomatic negotiators did not let Navalny’s death kill negotiations. They expanded their horizons, ultimately involving other nations.
Keep trying. Negotiations can become tiring and even tedious. “Negotiations are tactical and mental,” says Williams. “To that point, when tactics a negotiator has planned to utilize don’t achieve their goal, that negotiator must remain mentally tough and not become frazzled by what may be a momentary setback. If one loses their cool, their mental abilities to keep their head in the negotiation can move from cool to cold. That’s when the negotiation becomes fraught with the potential of disappointment for that individual.”
Transparency and trust
The challenge is to continue dialogue, try new strategies and tactics, and achieve outcomes that benefit both sides.
Two outcomes of such thinking may result in greater transparency and trust. People get to know one another better, and since they cooperate in one effort, it may be possible to continue the relationship. Effective negotiations take time and effort, and as a result, it is easy to become discouraged.
“We can’t end conflict, but we can embrace it and transform it,” writes William Ury. “We choose to handle conflict constructively, using our innate curiosity, creativity and collaboration. While conflict can clearly bring out the worst in us, it can also bring out the best in us – if we unlock our full potential.” We must as Ury writes is to see issues and conflicts “differently” – as possibilities rather than dead ends. [Italics are Mr. Ury’s.]
Now that the prisoner swap has been concluded, there is the possibility – or perhaps hope – that adversaries like the U.S. and Russia – can make further deals, including ones that free remaining prisoners like Mark Fogel, a school teacher who remains in a Russian prison.
First posted on Forbes.com 8.00.2024