The Strait of Hormuz is closed.
U. S. munitions, including missiles and drones, are running low. As a result, U.S. bases – and facilities of our Gulf allies – are in greater danger of enemy attacks that cannot be repelled.
Sailors on the USS Lincoln are experiencing hardship conditions – lack of hygiene supplies, backed-up toilets – that are breaking their readiness.
Worse, the Administration has not been clear in its strategies and goals for this war.
All of these conditions are the result of the failure of what is called “second order thinking” – that’s when the consequences of decisions are not evaluated properly.
Reporting from multiple sources reports that senior military leaders warned the President that the attack on Iran – a decision of choice – would not be easy and could result in consequences like the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.
Clausewitz – and many military leaders since, including Douglas MacArthur and Dwight Eisenhower – posited that plans on paper are seldom a match for reality on the ground.
The lesson for those of us who lead is to think broadly and deeply.
Make it safe to voice contrary opinions.
Listen to people who know more than you do.
Invite people to “red team” your plans, e.g., challenge them.
There will be a solution to the Iranian War, but it will be costly and will serve as a lesson that when you plan without consequences, undesirable outcomes occur.